You’re friends with someone (let’s call him Mr Smith) who has two children. You know that the older child is a girl. What’s the probability of the younger child also being a girl?
It certainly has been a while since I last wrote about chaos. Perhaps you could say I’ve been a little… unpredictable? Maybe the seemingly inconsequential decision of a certain someone on one side of the world, having read the post and enjoyed it, to not give the post a like (yes, I’m looking at you) somehow had the net effect of delaying me writing this one on the opposite side of the world. Or maybe I’m just incredibly unorganised… nah, it can’t possibly be the latter.
Last night, I quickly had a look at the weather forecast for today. It confidently reassured me that there would be a bright, sunlit morning with a 5% chance of rainy spells. Of course, I had no doubt in my mind that the forecast was telling the truth. In the morning, I awoke with a large yawn and a badly-needed stretch. As I got up to draw back the curtains and admire the sunshine, I felt a sharp chill creep up my spine. “Hmm, it’s oddly cold in here”, I thought. Throwing back the curtains in vivid anticipation, my eyes flinched at the glare. My garden was covered edge to edge in a thick layer of bright, white snow. Just as predicted, right?